The Japan Meteorological Association (Headquarters: Toshima-ku, Tokyo, President: Tadashi Nagata, hereinafter referred to as the “Japan Meteorological Association”) announced the 89 cherry blossoms in Japan in 2022[吉野染井等]The flowering forecast (6th). To be announced on Thursday, March 17, 2014.
2022 Blossom Forecast Frontier
Estimated 2022 Flowering Date (Key Points)
Expected flowering date (points)
* due date[ ]is where it has bloomed and bloomed.
* Kushiro City is expected to be Ezoyama Sakura
Blossom and bloom trends
Cherry blossoms are expected to bloom at the same level as normal or earlier across the country. In Hokkaido, some places will bloom very early. Compared with Japan’s record early flowering in 2021, the time from Kyushu to Tohoku is expected to be a few days to a week later.
On the 16th, the cherry blossoms in Sumo City, Kochi Prefecture, bloomed at the earliest time expected by the Japan Meteorological Association. In addition, today on the 17th, Fukuoka and Ehime/Uwajima cities also bloomed. After that, Kumamoto is expected to bloom on the 19th, Tokyo is expected to bloom on the 20th, and it seems that the cherry blossoms can be expected next week. With the high temperature of over 20 degrees Celsius from Kyushu to Kanto over the past few days, the buds are expected to grow rapidly, with widespread blooms expected from western Japan to Kanto Koshin by the end of March. From early to mid-April, many flowers will bloom in Hokuriku and Tohoku, and the cherry blossom front will arrive in Hokkaido in late April. Sapporo is expected to bloom on April 25 and Hakodate on April 26.
The Kyushu to Kanto Koshin bloom date is expected to be as early as usual, with many locations from Kyushu to Kanto in late March. It will bloom in Tokyo on March 26. In the Hokuriku and Tohoku, there are many places that will bloom earlier than usual, and in Hokkaido, it will be about 10 days earlier than normal. Sapporo and Hakodate are in full bloom in late April, and you can enjoy cherry blossoms during the Golden Week.
This winter (December-February), there are often strong colds. Many days of severe cold across the country broke the dormancy of cherry blossom buds.※It seems to be going well. Hot weather began to appear in early March, with temperatures exceeding 25 degrees Celsius in Fukuoka, Chiba and other places on the 14th. Cold weather is expected to return this weekend, but the warmth of spring will gradually approach. Even into April, temperatures are expected to remain normal or warm across the country, which is expected to boost bud growth.
* Breaking dormancy: The flower buds that formed and entered the dormant state in the previous summer will wake up after being exposed to low temperature for a certain period of time in winter.
The cherry blossom forecast date for all 89 points is the cherry blossom forecast page on the weather forecast media “tenki.jp” operated by the Japan Meteorological Association.https://tenki.jp/sakura/expectation/) is open to the public.
Normal Years: Average from 1991 to 2020
Quite early: 7 days or earlier than normal
Early: 3 to 6 days earlier than normal
Normal year: The difference from normal year is within 2 days
Slow: 3 to 6 days later than normal
Quite late: 7 days or more later than normal
Frequently Asked Questions about Cherry Blossom Forecast
the first season: What is the timetable for the announcement of the cherry blossom forecast?
A1: The following dates are planned. Only the expected flowering dates are announced in January and February, and the expected flowering and blooming dates are announced after March.
|January 1, 27 (Thursday)||February 2 (Thursday) February 10||3rd Thursday, February 24||4th Thursday, March 3|
|5th Thursday, March 10||6th Thursday, March 17||7th Thursday, March 24||March 8th 31st (Thursday)|
|April 9th 14th (Thursday)||10th Thursday, April 28|
Q2: What are the criteria for flowering and blooming dates?
A2: Same as the observation standard of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The flowering day is the first day when more than 5 to 6 flowers bloom on the specimen tree, and the blooming day is the first day when more than 80% of the flower buds on the specimen tree are open.
the third quater: What is the expected number of points?
A3: We will announce the forecast of 49 points in January and February, and the forecast of 89 points nationwide after March. The 89 forecast points are 53 sample trees observed by the meteorological station in various regions, and 36 points can obtain observation data from local governments, parks and other cooperative institutions.
fourth quarter: What are the methods and features of the cherry blossom forecast of the Japan Meteorological Association?
A4: We use our own prediction formula to predict flowering, focusing on the “post-autumn temperature process”, which has a great influence on the growth process of flower buds. It is characterized by forecasting based on meteorology, emphasizing accurate observation data through cooperative institutions such as specimen trees and local meteorological observatories and parks.
The Japan Meteorological Association has been forecasting cherry blossoms since 2007, and this year marks the 16th year of the initiative.
Q5: What data do you use to predict flowering?
A5: Use the following data.
- Temperature observations from the autumn of last year to the day before the expected working day
- Temperature forecast from forecast working days to flowering time (Japan Meteorological Association point forecast and long-range forecast)
The temperature from autumn to spring of the previous year greatly affects the flowering time of cherry blossoms. Cherry blossom buds form in the summer of the previous year and then go dormant. Exposure to low temperatures for a period of time in winter, buds wake up from dormancy (break dormancy). After waking from dormancy, it grows and blooms with warmer temperatures, but it is thought that the higher the temperature, the faster the buds will grow and the faster they will bloom.
PDF download:[Japan Meteorological Association Press Release]2022 Cherry Blossom Forecast (Issue 6)_